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By Samantha Mori, Graduate Research Assistant, Iowa State University and Samuel C.H. Mindes, Assistant Professor, Iowa State University

1       Introduction

Food insecurity is an indicator of economic hardship and is closely related to poverty and low income (Coleman-Jensen & Steffen, 2017). These conditions are both barriers and drivers of migration (Czaika & Reinprecht, 2020), suggesting a relationship between food insecurity and migration intentions.

This study examines the relationship between household food insecurity status, including SNAP/food stamp benefit use, and their intention to move. Using data from the NCR-Stat: Housing and Food Security Survey (Mindes, Bednarik, & Mori, 2026), a logistic regression analysis estimates the effect of food insecurity on household intentions to leave their current residential location.

2       Background

2.1      Food Security in the North Central Region

Food security is defined as the physical, social, and economic access to food that is safe and of sufficient quantity and quality to meet the dietary needs and preferences to support healthy and active lives (Ashby et al., 2016; Food and Agriculture Organization, 2012). Food security is commonly conceptualized along four dimensions: availability, access, utilization, and stability (FAO, 2008).

• Availability: Reliable and consistent source of quality food.
• Access: Resources, economic or physical, required to obtain quality food.
• Utilization: Energy and nutrient intake as a result of safely preparing and storing food.
• Stability: Stable food availability, access, and utilization over time (Ashby et al., 2016; Barrett, 2010; FAO, 2008; Gross et al., 2000).

In the United States, the U.S. Department of Agriculture categorizes the ranges of severity of food insecurity into four groups. High food security is characterized by no reported limitations or problems with food access. Marginal food security includes those with only one or two reported indications of limitations or problems with food access. Low food security refers to those who report reductions in the quality, variety, or desirability of their diet, with little or no indication of reduced food intake. Finally, very low food security is characterized by reports of multiple indications of disruption to eating habits and a reduction in food intake (Economic Research Service, 2026a).

In 2024, 13.7 percent of U.S. households were food insecure – either having low food or very low food secure status – according to the most recent USDA reports (Rabbitt et al., 2025). State-level estimates of food insecurity, created by averaging data from 2022 to 2024, indicate that in the North Central Region, food insecurity is near or below the U.S. average of 13.3 percent for that time period (Rabbitt et al., 2025). The margin of error for Rabbitt et al. (2025)’s state-level estimates range from 1.45 percentage points to 2.16 percentage points due to “the uncertainty associated with estimates that are based on information from a limited number of households in each State.” Therefore, due to differences in sampling procedures, the NCR-Stat: Housing and Food Security Survey (Mindes, Bednarik, & Mori, 2026) found that 32.7 percent of households in the region are food insecure, even when following the same method as the USDA.

2.2      Shaping intentions to move

What shapes intentions to move are often described as drivers of migration (Migration Data Portal, 2021). Drivers that are commonly researched include age, education, gender, income, migrant networks, socio-economic status, and (un)employment (Aslany et al., 2021; Pitoski, Lampoltshammer, & Parycek, 2021; Soto Nishimura & Czaika, 2024). Since food insecurity is linked to both poverty and low incomes (Coleman-Jensen & Steffen, 2017) and, therefore, socio-economic status, the relationship between food insecurity and migration is an emerging area of research.

Food insecurity is “one of the most powerful and immediate triggers of human mobility across the world” (Sajid, 2025). Of the research that has emerged, there is a clear connection between food insecurity and intentions to migrate. Sadiddin et al. (2019) found that food insecurity increases the probability of intentions to migrate in Sub-Saharan Africa. Smith and Floro (2020) found similar results across 94 low- and middle-income countries — as food insecurity became more severe, the probability of migration intentions increased.

However, in the United States and other high-income countries, there has been little research on the link between food insecurity and migration intentions, both internal and international. Therefore, the study aims to answer the following research questions and provide a basis for future research:

• How is food security associated with intentions to move in the North Central Region?
• How is participation in food assistance programs associated with intentions to move in the North Central Region?

3       Materials and Methods

3.1      Data

We use the NCR-Stat: Housing and Food Security Survey (Mindes, Bednarik, & Mori, 2026), conducted by the North Central Regional Center for Rural Development. The NCR-Stat: Housing and Food Security Survey is a household survey including 4,175 respondents from the twelve states in the NCR: Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin. Participation was voluntary, and participant information was de-identified. The data contains information on household demographics, housing costs and features, safety, moving and staying behaviors, and food security.

3.2      Methodology

For our analysis, we use binary logistic regression to evaluate the relationship between food security and moving intentions. We also evaluate the relationship between food assistance use and intentions to move.

For all variables, responses of “I refuse to answer,” “I do not know,” and no response were removed from the analysis. The total number of responses included in the analysis is 3,738.

Dependent Variable

The dependent variable, intention to move, is respondents’ self-reported intentions to stay in their current residence or move within the next 12 months. This is determined by the question “Do you intend to stay in your current residential location or move somewhere else in the next 12 months?” Survey participants indicated their intentions by answering “Move” or “Stay.” The survey data shows that 16.3 percent of the included respondents intend to move, and 83.7 percent intend to stay.

Independent Variables

The food security variable is a composite categorical variable constructed using the following ten survey items:

1. To what extent do you agree with the following statements? I or other household members was/were worried whether my/our food would run out before I/we got money to buy more.
2. To what extent do you agree with the following statements? The food that I or other household members bought just did not last, and I/we did not have money to get more.
3. To what extent do you agree with the following statements? I or other household members could not afford to eat balanced meals.
4. In the last 12 months, did you or other adults in your household ever cut the size of your meals or skip meals because there was not enough money for food?
   1. How often did this happen?
5. In the last 12 months, did you ever eat less than you felt you should because there was not enough money for food?
6. In the last 12 months, have you ever been hungry but did not eat because there was not enough money for food?
7. In the last 12 months, did you lose weight because there was not enough money for food?
8. In the last 12 months, did you or other adults in your household ever not eat for a whole day because there was not enough money for food?
   1. How often did this happen?

The responses to these questions were coded following the USDA’s “U.S. Adult Food Security Survey Module” (ERS, 2012), where responses of “Yes,” “Often true,” “Sometimes true,” “Almost every month,” and “some months but not every month” were coded as affirmative. All other responses were coded as negative. The total number of affirmative responses is the raw score on the food security scale. Raw scores are assigned to the following food security statuses:

• 0 = High Food Security
• 1-2 = Marginal Food Security
• 3-5 = Low Food Security
• 6-10 = Very Low Food Security

The variable SNAP/food stamp benefits comes from the survey question: In the past 12 months, did you or anyone in your household get your state-specific Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) or food stamp benefits? Responses of “yes” were recorded as affirmative, and responses of “no” were recorded as negative.

The demographic variables used as control variables in the logistic regression model are age, race, gender, household income, and household location (urban, suburban, rural).

Table 1. Descriptive statistics for continuous variables in the analysis (N = 3,738)

Source: 2026 NCR-Stat: Housing and Food Security Survey (Mindes et al., 2026)

Table 2. Descriptive statistics for categorical variables in the analysis (N = 3,738)

Source: 2026 NCR-Stat: Housing and Food Security Survey (Mindes et al., 2026)

4       Results

4.1      How is food security associated with intentions to move in the North Central Region?

Model 1 (shown in Table 3) estimates the effect of food security status on intentions to move while controlling for other demographic and household factors. Households with marginal food security status are not significantly more likely to report intentions to move than those with high food security status (p = 0.138). Households with low food security are 60.7 percent more likely to report intending to move than households with high food security (p = 0.002). Households with very low food security are 218.7 percent more likely to report intentions to move than those with high food security (p < 0.001). Model 1 shows a clear pattern: the likelihood that someone has intentions to move in the next 12 months increases as their food security status lowers. 

Table 3. Results of binary logistic regression analysis of intentions to move due to food security status (yes/no = 1/0) (N = 3,738)

Note: Pseudo R² = 0.165. Additional variables not shown are age, gender identity, race, household location, and 2025 income. Full model results are available upon request.

This pattern holds true even for those who receive SNAP/food stamp benefits, as seen in Model 3 (Table 4). While there is no significant difference in the likelihood of households with marginal food security to report intending to move than those with high food security (p = 0.210), households with low food security are 51.4 percent more likely to report intentions to move compared to those with high food security, whether they received SNAP/food stamp benefits or not within the last 12 months (p = 0.006). Households with very low food security are 190.0 percent more likely to report intentions to move, even when controlling for the effects of whether they received SNAP/food stamp benefits within the last 12 months (p < 0.001).

Table 4. Results of binary logistic regression analysis of intentions to move due to food security status and food assistance use (yes/no =1/0) (N = 3,738)

Note: Pseudo R² = 0.168. Additional variables not shown are age, gender identity, race, household location, and 2025 income. Full model results are available upon request.

4.2      How is participation in food assistance programs associated with intentions to move in the North Central Region?

Model 2 (shown in Table 5) estimates the effect of SNAP/food stamp benefits on intentions to move while controlling for other factors. Households that received SNAP/food stamp benefits in the last 12 months are 76.5 percent more likely to intend to move compared to those that did not receive benefits (p < 0.001). The size of the effect of receiving SNAP/food stamp benefits on intentions to move decreases when controlling for food security status, as seen in Model 3. Households that received SNAP/food stamp benefits in the last 12 months are 34.2 percent more likely to intend to move, when controlling for their food security status (p = 0.008). This suggests that receiving SNAP/food stamp benefits does not influence intentions to move as strongly as household food security status.

Table 5. Results of binary logistic regression analysis of intentions to move due to food assistance use (yes/no = 1/0) (N = 3,738)

Note: Pseudo R2 = 0.136. Additional variables not shown are age, gender identity, race, household location, and 2025 income. Full model results are available upon request.

5       Conclusion

Intentions to move are influenced by household food security. This study shows that households in the North Central Region with low or very low food security are more likely to have intentions to move in the next 12 months, even after controlling for age, race, gender identity, household location, income, and SNAP/food stamp benefit use. Consistent with research in international contexts, the link between food insecurity and migration is evident, particularly regarding migration intentions. The current study provides a basis for future research across the United States to explore this nexus in greater depth.

References

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Migration Data Portal. (2021). Migration Drivers. Types of Migration. https://www.migrationdataportal.org/themes/migration-drivers

Mindes, S.; Bednarik, Z.; Mori, S. (2026). North Central Region Household Data. NCR-Stat: Housing and Food Security Survey. Purdue University Research Repository. doi:10.4231/ZAVR-CE69

Pitoski, D., Lampoltshammer, T. J., & Parycek, P. (2021). Drivers of Human Migration: A Review of Scientific Evidence. Social Sciences, 10(1), 21. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci10010021

Rabbitt, M. P.; Reed-Jones, M.; Hales, L. J.; Suttles, S.; Burke, M. P. (2025). Household food security in the United States in 2024 (Report No. ERR-358). U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. https://doi.org/10.32747/2025.9458834.ers

Sadiddin, A.; Cattaneo, A.; Cirillo, M.; Miller, M. (2019). Food insecurity as a determinant of international migration: evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa. Food Security 11:515-530. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12571-019-00927-w

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About the Authors

• Samantha Mori is a Graduate Research Assistant with the Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice at Iowa State University.
• Samuel C.H. Mindes is an Assistant Professor with the Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice at Iowa State University and a Fellow with the North Central Regional Center for Rural Development.

Suggested Citation

Mori, S.; Mindes, S. (2026). The Impact of Food Security on Intentions to Migrate: Findings from the North Central Region. Research Brief. North Central Regional Center for Rural Development.  https://doi.org/10.22004/ag.econ.413151